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celticspikey
April 02, 2020, 02:15:50 PM
 Is there a problem with the font set up. Every things over lapped.
carling2
March 27, 2020, 05:30:45 PM
 Or is that 12 months from now lol
carling2
March 27, 2020, 05:29:44 PM
 I thought that comment was about tectin 😁😁
Dungbeetle
March 16, 2020, 05:41:50 PM
 Nice to see you back, I thought  that  you'd shut  down. 
carling2
March 09, 2020, 10:23:54 AM
 Cheers Paul. Same to you
dragonsbreath(Paul)
March 08, 2020, 07:38:49 PM
 best of luck buddy i love it
carling2
March 08, 2020, 06:28:13 PM
 Thanks mate I'm warming to it  had the nox a week now

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Author Topic: Covid 19  (Read 698 times)
The Doc
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« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2020, 07:35:06 PM »

As someone who worked in the NHS for 36 years, I can't believe the irresponsible attitude of posters on this thread.

When you or a relative come down with this illness, perhaps you will think again....


* Covid Deaths.JPG (58.85 KB, 733x577 - viewed 215 times.)
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carling2
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2020, 08:35:16 PM »

Doc we understand what your saying but people will still get out tectin we all know that and we are just saying if you have to go take precautions.. We know it's more dangerous going to the shop or  getting medication and if you have a dog where do you walk it etc... You know as well as anybody or here how isolated you are if you go on one of your permissions alone.. You know people will still detect and unlike the ncmd telling everyone not to go we are saying if you have to go take the same precautions as going to the shop walking the dog etc.. But as you know the chances of meeting anybody in this game are pretty much 0.
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2020 finds 16 hammereds 5 milled
The Doc
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2020, 08:40:51 PM »

No one has to go. Detecting is not an essential activity. The finds will still be there when we come out of this.
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carling2
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2020, 08:44:12 PM »

Yes I agree but again not everyone is in the same boat. My nearest permission is less than I min drive and 700 acres.. The pic is my  very nearest  permission and yes it's my garden..and includes the land over the wall . Everyone is different. And exercise ie walking is a allowed  activity.. Have you seen how many people are walking about? Detectorists are doing the same but away from people. Anyway I ain't carrying on this thread ncmd  can't ban tectin people will still go out yes it's a form of exercise and if I go out I will use precautions to keep contact to a minimum  wear gloves go alone keep away from people etc or I could go to a supermarket and be breathed all over or I could walk through my village( 1 of the smallest in herefordshire) and say hello to everyone I pass while walking the dog. To be fair the only people that are doing things right in this crisis are not coming out of there house at all.. No shopping, no chores, no socialing, no work,  no dog walking, rambling, taking the kids out no traveling what so ever. Let everyone know if you can do that then maybe some people might come out of there empty fields and  say OK I will put the detecter away.... For maybe a year or 2 ( this is some estimates) maybe the goverment should have a military lock down  and then nobody goes anywhere and everyone complies.


* IMG_20200326_142633-832x624.jpg (193.77 KB, 832x624 - viewed 234 times.)
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 10:18:42 PM by carling2 » Logged

2020 finds 16 hammereds 5 milled
probono
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« Reply #19 on: March 27, 2020, 10:17:10 AM »

Doc, thank you for the graph - I'm sure everyone is aware of it, and it can look very scary.

Let's put some numbers into perspective.

Just to start, as the numbers,and rate of people being tested increase there will be larger increases in the numbers of people who are tested positive; why not state the numbers of people who got tested who were negatives? That's currently about 85% of those tested (at least 90,000 people) - and testing is currently confined to people who present with symptoms, or who are key workers, such as hospital staff. As a consequence these numbers are not as representative of the general population as might be suggested. I personally think far more people actually have the disease as a percentage of the population.

Wales population is 3.139 million (as of 2018). There are currently 741 confirmed cases.

Simple maths (741/3139000)*100 gives a current confirmed infection rate in Wales of 0.02% of the population.

Based on average age at death, you can work out that roughly 42,000 people died in Wales last year, that equates to 3,500 per month (Cardiff used to have something like 4,000 per year when I worked at the crematorium). I should also point out, from personal knowledge, that deaths are much higher (by about a factor of 5:1) in the winter compared to the summer. I've just taken a bald average, rather than any seasonally adjusted figure.

This means,again using simple maths (28/3500)*100 = 0.8% of the deaths in Wales in March were from people who died with Covid-19.  Let me state that again - they died with Covid-19, not necessarily from Covid-19.

Currently the government has said that Covid-19 is reportable - but that doesn't mean it is the primary cause of death. If someone has AIDS for instance that is put on the death certificate, however it is often secondary infections that kill people.

Do I worry about people - yes of course - my step mother has COPD, and has had a stroke recently, and got a hospital acquired infection - but I would be worried about her in normal times getting any other type of coronovirus or season 'flu. But you know of course that 'flu doesn't get tested like Covid 19 is, and isn't a reportable disease.

Please could you update us with excess mortality due to Covid-19?

I think - as someone who is a scientist - that discussions with explained data are vitally important. Much of what is written in the media is not explained and is emotional - and dare I say selective.

Anyway, I think that should be enough for now.

I am currently following the government's advice even if I think it is based on bad science. I am more worried about the worldwide madness that is obliterating people's pensions and livelihoods.


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carling2
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« Reply #20 on: March 27, 2020, 10:49:01 AM »

Again well said mate. I don't pretend to be brilliantly clever😁 and some of the maths lost me a bit but reading through confirms what most people think.. Yes im also concerned that there is now a growing number of people on the Internet that are stating they are having problems paying basic household bills cause they can't get to work and we all know this crisis is going to take many individuals and businesses alike down and most of it won't be through infection..I'm also following gov advice only getting out for shopping and exercise( and not travelling any longer than 2 mins by car for exercise😉  and yes wearing gloves and staying away from people😁
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 11:00:51 AM by carling2 » Logged

2020 finds 16 hammereds 5 milled
The Doc
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« Reply #21 on: March 27, 2020, 07:59:01 PM »

Quote from: probono


Please could you update us with excess mortality due to Covid-19?



I appreciate the statistical viewpoint Roland, and your question is undoubtedly a valid one.

We will only know for certain when this is all over and data are examined to determine whether there was a significant excess in deaths during this period.
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Val Beechey
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« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2020, 01:29:48 AM »

Quote from: probono


Please could you update us with excess mortality due to Covid-19?



I appreciate the statistical viewpoint Roland, and your question is undoubtedly a valid one.

We will only know for certain when this is all over and data are examined to determine whether there was a significant excess in deaths during this period.


I donít think weíll need to wait for it to be all over Doc. Weíve only got to see the reported deaths in Italy, Spain and now the USA to realise what a lethal virus this is and how many are being infected by it, with & without underlying health problems.
What is worrying me is our governments approach to it. This stop, go idea could prolong things rather than stop it. I know what the thinking behind it is but it probably wonít change the outcome in the long run. I wonder how many deaths are expected when you see they are building a Mortuary for up to 2000 at Birmingham Airport !
In the meantime Iím faced with a trip to a supermarket full of morons wandering around like itís a normal trip out.  Angry
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 01:33:30 AM by Val Beechey » Logged

Ever Optimistic, it's out there somewhere - And I Found it
carling2
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« Reply #23 on: March 28, 2020, 10:19:54 AM »

I agree with you val stay indoors apart from shopping, exercise, medication, helping the community, work and those that still have to work is a bit of a joke really ain't it.. This is why people will still throng around the supermarkets and some people will still be tectin ( this is still a, detecting site ain't it?), a lot of detectorists say we got to stay in  beacuse otherwise we will have a military style lock down  and then no tectin( bit of a selfish attitude if you ask me and believe me tectin is the least of the goverment worries... Me I would welcome a complete lock down as that the only way you can truly save lives and everyone will be in the same boat. As said before we all know people are still detecting and we all know people are still being idiots at the supermarket, I know where I would rather be.
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Val Beechey
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« Reply #24 on: March 28, 2020, 04:28:20 PM »

With a bit of luck Iíve got a couple of good quality masks coming on Monday.
Iíll feel much happier going round the Co-op looking like a bandit than an idiot.
I think thereís still a lot of apathy toward the warnings around here. Itíll soon change when the first death is reported.
I just hope to not me !
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carling2
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« Reply #25 on: March 28, 2020, 04:38:04 PM »

I'm the same I've already got gloves and masks and yes I will also be going out like a bandit in the future😁 and according to a report in the independent gov advisors are telling the gov that these measures will have to be in place over a year so we all going bandito for a while and if your short of wonger. Might as well pawn the tectin kit for 12 months ,,,,(to be fair I thought 2 years of isolation so maybe yes maybe no)  on another note due to people's madness and Facebook there's posts going round now not to use public rights of way for you or your dog as this virus can live on shoes??? and there was even someone supposedly from the NHS telling people don't go shopping even for a loaf of bread for the next 2 weeks.. Whole world's gone nuts. Let's face it this virus as done in 2 weeks what the archis have failed to do for years... Got loads of us off the fields😁😁
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 03:42:20 PM by carling2 » Logged

2020 finds 16 hammereds 5 milled

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